State Chart of Philippine Democracy: Status Update

[carlos v. jugo]

One year ago, i posted possible changes to our existing political order. Now seems to be a good time to revisit the prospects of each scenario given recent events as well as new things i've learned since then. (For an explanation of what the various combinations of elite/popular and democracy/dictatorship mean, please refer to this blog entry.)

Scenario 1: Unicameral Parliamentary within an Elite Dictatorship: There have been attempts to revive Charter Change this time using the Mindanao peace process as a justification and emphasizing Federalism. There is less emphasis on the 'Unicameral' portion.

Scenario 2: Unicameral Parliamentary within an Elite Democracy: A democratic parliament (as defined in my original post) is highly unlikely given the demonstrated tendency of the Representatives to formulate policy on the basis of bribes.

Scenario 3: Unicameral Parliamentary within a Popular Democracy: There is as yet no Thaksin-like figure emerging among the current crop of Philippine tycoons but maybe it's too early for that. After all, why pander to the public when you can control the elected Representatives?

Populist tycoons aside, another possible route to Popular Democracy within a parliamentary set-up (which i was vaguely aware of back then but did not write about) would be to switch to a system of Proportional Representation. Under this system, parties with a well-defined mission, e.g. parties of the traditional Left, Gawad-Kalinga type movements, pro-poor with religious affiliations or even pro-poor Center-right parties, may capture more seats because there is less emphasis on personalities.

Scenario 4: Presidential system within an Popular Democracy Unfortunately, the best possible candidate for such an outcome is presently presently indisposed. Besides, i realized he won't be old enough by 2010.

Scenario 5: Presidential system within an Popular Dictatorship This scenario becomes more likely the longer the dream of a popular democracy (Scenario 4) is postponed. (In Venezuela, they just had a close call.)

Scenario 6: Other forms of Popular Dictatorship With GMA losing the mandate of heaven coupled with her refusal to relinquish it, this is becoming the most likely outcome (via a soldier's rebellion). If the ruling junta does not call elections soon enough, then the emergence of a new elite (which i labeled Scenario 7) within the dictatorship would be the natural outcome.

So absent another People Power exercise, the most likely outcomes are either a continuation of our elitist dictatorship in parliamentary form (Scenario 1) or a popular dictatorship (Scenario 6).